We analysed the receivables of 3,500 points of sale across four markets. Result: most arrears do not come from bad payers, but from delays discovered too late. When a distributor sees the delay the same day, the 30-day collection rate improves markedly. The study describes at-risk POS profiles, the effect of automatic reminders and the role of the credit score in the decision to deliver on credit.
What we looked at
Since Kweli launched in early 2026, more than 3,500 points of sale have been onboarded across four markets: Madagascar, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin and Togo. Every delivery creates a dated receivable, every collection settles it. For the first time at this scale, we have a continuous reading of payment delays in local distribution - not declared, but observed.
An arrear is not a profile, it is a delay
The first lesson contradicts intuition: the vast majority of delays do not come from structural "bad payers". The same points of sale pay on time some weeks and late others. What separates a recovered receivable from a lost one is the moment the delay is seen. A delay detected the same day leads to a reminder, an explanation, an arrangement. A delay discovered at the monthly closing has already become a habit, and often a second credit delivery.
The signals that precede a delay
Three signals appear almost systematically before a lasting arrear: a gradual lengthening of settlement time over the last three receivables, a drop in ordered volume while displayed stock stays high, and a first failed payment request for insufficient balance. None of these signals is visible in a monthly spreadsheet. All are visible in a schedule kept day by day.
What networks that collect well do
Distributors whose collection rate improves fastest share three practices. They send reminders automatically, without waiting for the rep's visit. They make the next delivery conditional on settling the previous one - not as a sanction, but as a rule displayed and applied to all. And they use the credit score to adjust each POS's credit limit, up as well as down, rather than one limit for the whole network.
What it changes for a brand
For a supplier at the head of the network, the lesson is the same one level up: a distributor's balance is read in the regularity of its POS. A network where delays are seen and handled the same day is a network that can be financed. This link between transparency and trust is the foundation of Kweli's credit score.